Giving Away Money: 2023 Week 8 Picks Against the Spread To Enhance Your Filthy Lucre

Week Five: 2-3
Season: 23-15-2

Told Ya’

The Tigers give up a ton of explosive plays through the air. That is certainly going to be a problem against the Green Wave, who average 9.7 YPA — which is frankly absurd.

Numbers really like the visitors here.

Green Wave went into the locker room down by four, came out slinging it, and won a 10-point roadie.

What on Earth

Since an abominable -6 game in September, the Eagles haven’t turned it over yet, and they are +4 in conference play. The passing offense is simply outstanding, and their secondary is coming along.

Welp. I jinxed it. Georgia Southern turned it over four times Saturday, and gut walloped as a result.

---

Welcome to Week Eight of 2023’s Giving Away Money.

We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs.

For a third year, we extend our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll in this space. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub.

For current odds, check those out here.

---

Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.

Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.

Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:

Michigan -24.5 at MSU

I don’t care what the data say. This is the first football-like substance that the Wolverines have played all year, and it’s on the road too. It’s also a rivalry that has been obstinate in its refusal to let the road team cover spreads. Michigan State is not good, but they’ll play very hard Saturday. So, let’s see what Harbaugh has first against D1 athletes, shall we?

The data do love the Wolverines though -29.94

---

One We Like:

FSU -14 vs. Duke

The Devils have the nation’s best drive efficiency defense, but this may be worth it because the ‘Noles are just a different, terrifyingly good team at home. Only one team has even played them well for a half...LSU. And ask the Tigers how that worked out. This is Duke’s first quality road test, and I can’t think of anywhere less in the ACC I’d want to take it. Star QB Riley Leonard could play, but I don’t think I would want to announce my return against the ACC’s best pass rush.

It’s marginal, but I think I’m going to take this one despite it being just outside the error bars.
Take the ‘Noles
FSU -15.04

---

One We Love:

Washington -26.5 vs Arizona State

If the Sun Devils start turning the ball over, as they are wont to do, this one is gonna’ get ugly. It’s already a tough game as-is. ASU has been a lot more competitive than you’d expect this year, but this is a different critter on the road. A very terrible critter, just as the Doogs are a different beast in Seattle. This is a huge spread, but the number really does like the Huskies here.

Penix is gonna’ pad those Heisman stats, and the Huskies light it ‘up for playoff positioning

Take the Puppies
Doogs -30.19

An Underdog With Bite:

Nevada +14.5 at San Diego State

This is not your usual Aztecs team. Sure, the offense is gross as usual, but this season the defense has fallen way back too, turning sure-winner games into single-score death matches. Doesn’t matter the team, SDSU will play up (or down) exactly one score...even home FCS soup cans. Nevada still stinks, for sure. But the offense has improved, and the defense is trying to get to merely sucking. An impotent Aztec offense is just the confidence booster it needed.

So, there’s no reason to mistrust the data on this one.
Nevada loses but covers +9.77

Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports

---

Ginormous Spread Worth Your Time:

UCF +19.5 at Oklahoma

Football is a game of matchups and this is a bad one. Take your pick, really. We can start with UCF’s defense being prone to giving up big plays, to Oklahoma being in the Top 10 in generating them. Or the Sooners being the best in the country in +/- while the Knights are almost dead last in turnover margin. Or Gus Malzahn’s historically poor road play (just 1/3rd cover rate as a road coach). Or we can talk about gussying it up for the CFP Committee rankings, soon to be released. Even Dillon Gabriel’s Heisman odds — he’s sitting at third right now in Vegas. Also, more than a little “kiss my ass” to both Lincoln Riley and his apologists.

This is a rough roadie for Gus and crew.
Dirt Burglars -22.93

---

Mortal Lock

Arkansas -6 vs. MSU

I think I like this one a whole bunch, especially at home. Record aside, Arkansas is the better team in almost every measure. They’re also playing at home, where Pittman’s team has played much better. If this season has been any indication, or the year before...or the year before, the new-look defense feast on a passing game that has traditionally fared poorly against the zone. The biggest wildcard here is if Dan Enos can refrain from screwing up the RB rotation and finally unleash KJ to let him be. The Piggies offense should have a good game against one of the SEC’s poorer defenses.

We’ll say it happens
Arkansas -10.17

---

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month. Far cheaper than a divorce attorney when your wife leaves you for being a bad gambler.