Giving Away Money: 2023 SEC Football Win Totals

I know it does not seem like it, but we are very close to the magical 100-day countdown for the start of the college football season. Spring ball just wrapped up across every major conference, and the last scrimmages held, so it’s time for the oddsmakers to begin their favorite activity: taking money early and often from suckers.

But you, gentle reader, will know better, because you have my sagacious counsel to guide you. Indeed, beginning today, we are Giving Away Money.

Here are the projected SEC wins totals, as well as notable others, from Sports Betting AG, as well as who we like, why, and how to bank this to your benefit. All totals are for the regular season only.

SEC Odds Victories

Georgia +100 11.5

Alabama +200 10.5

LSU +525 9.5

Tennessee +1400 9

Texas A&M +1400 7.5

Mississippi +3300 7.5

Auburn +7500 6.5

Florida +7500 5.5

Mississippi State +7500 6.5

Arkansas +8000 7.5

Kentucky +8000 6.5

Missouri +8000 6.5

South Carolina +8000 6.5

Vanderbilt +10000 3.5

NOTABLES Odds Victories

USC +200 9.5

Colorado +3300 3.5

Arizona +7500 5.5

Texas +110 9.5

Oklahoma +300 9.5

TCU +1600 7.5

Ohio State +160 10.5

Michigan +180 10.5

Penn State +600 9.5

Wisconsin +650 9

Clemson +190 9.5

Notre Dame +190 9

Who We Hate, and Why

• Colorado under -3.5 — I don’t see one guaranteed W on here, much less four. Could realistically go winless, esp. with a new coach, new systems everywhere, and an ungodly 65 new players. I bet Shadeur Sanders sucks it up too — even though it’s the P12, the jump in talent level is going to make him look like a 2-star Freshman.
• Oklahoma under 9.5 — Questions at QB, defensive still sucks until Venables gets more talent
• Texas under 9.5 — Show me how many times Sark has had 10 regular season wins? He’s a calamity on the road, and the mental toughness of that program is question. Passing offense should be quite good though.
• Michigan under 10.5 — Barely under. Should be able to out-talent most teams, but the Wolverines lost a lot on both sides of the ball. 10-2 and in play for the East should be a good season.
• Arizona under 5.5 — Star QB de Laura is implicated in a sexual assault. He’s the one bright spot on this team. If he goes down, and eventually I bet he does get sidelined, the ‘Cats season gets pissed down the drain too.
• USCe under 6.5 — Road: at Mizzou, at UNC, at Tennessee, at A&M. Home vs. Clemson. Tossups everywhere. And absolutely do not sleep on that Jacksonville State game. The Gamecocks give everyone fits. Rattler still isn’t much about shit, IYAM. 6-6 and another bowl is a decent year for an average team.
• Arkansas under 7.5 — OOC is mostly pitiful, conference slate is not. AT: Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Florida. Hosts Mizzou, Auburn, BYU. They’re not escaping that without five+ losses. 7-5 would be a great year with the slate, the key losses on a veteran (bad) defense, and a two-man offense.
• Alabama under 9.5 — I’m sticking to my guns. This team is 9-3, maybe 8-4 with bad enough coaching and the quarterbacks being left to the tender mercies of an offensive coordinator who has proven absolutely nothing over 40 games. Criminal waste of talent coming, and don’t automatically think this team can beat Texas at home either. Alabama’s saving grace is that Auburn is rebuilding, Tennessee lost a ton, State has a new coach and key defensive losses, and LSU comes to Tuscaloosa. But...yeah. Temper that enthusiasm. I’d love to be wrong on this one. Don’t think I am.
• LSU under -9.5 — The Tigers didn’t lose much, but the schedule is a lot harder this year, including UA and then FSU right out of the gate. The Tigers are staring at 10-2 before the tough task of running the home schedule arises. They won’t do it though. 9-3.
• Miss. State under 6.5 — Key losses on defense, a new offensive scheme for a team built around the air raid, and a punishing schedule where even the “winnable” or “tossup” games are on the road? Yup. That’ll do it every time. 5-7, maybe even 4-8.
• Penn State under 9.5 — Rebuilding year, roadies to Maryland and Ohio State and Illinois and Sparty; home vs. Michigan, Iowa and WVU — They will likely go 4-3, 3-4 against those. Call it 8-4, 9-3.

Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

• TCU under 7.5 — That was a five-loss team wearing the skin suit of a two-loss club last year. This season, those karmic paybacks will be a bitch in an improving B12 with a retooling offense. 6-6, 5-7 is very possible. Most of this schedule is losable.
• Wisconsin under 9 — If this were year two, I’d say take the over. Fickell has to get this team acclimated to his way of doing things, and in closing out close games. The offense isn’t what he wants it to be either. 8-4ish is likely in a vastly improved B1G-East.
• Tennessee under 9 — You don’t lose a 37-year-old QB and get better, not when your hopes rest on the noodly arm of Joe Milton, and an offense that lost its best linemen and deep threat. Pair that with a rough-ass road schedule, a ghastly defense, a coach who sucks on the road, and it all spells regression city, baby. At least it’s a short trip to Memphis for the Vawls. Sorry, I lied. It’s a terrible trip to Memphis, which is going to make 7-5, 6-6 sting all the more. And I shall smile.
• Ole Miss under 7.5 — Nah, not happening. Road trips to a veteran Tulane team, Bama, UGA, and Auburn? UA, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU in a four-game swing? Even Vandy is dangerous in what is usually one of the weirdest games of the season, doubly so when that “trap” is the week before A&M. Nope. Not happening. 7-5.
• Auburn under 6.5 — Good news, Vandy is on the schedule. Bad news, it’s on the road...right before a road trip to Arkansas. OOC is a potential .500 slate, with Cal being across the country. Samford is no gimme either, not with their passing attack. They do host Alabama and Georgia, so that helps their case a bit. But they’ll be prohibitive dogs in both for a reason. 6-6 is probable, but bowl eligibility is there only because the West is rebuilding almost from scratch.

Who We Like, And Why

• OSU over 10.5 — Way, way too much talent in a year that catches UM and Penn State both rebuilding. Maryland will be better, but this is an 11-1 team, even with a new QB. MH2 is going to make a killing this year.
• Georgia over 11.5 — Won’t be as good as the last several years. But the schedule is the weakest in the SEC. Again. One neutral site, most “tough” games at home, and one quality road game — even that is a mere possibility. 11-1 is the worst this team should do. Period. Undefeated is more likely, barring a Kirby dick-tripping.
• USC under 9.5 — The beginning of the schedule is very easy. The Trojans should roll to, no worse, 5-1...and that’s if they’re upset along the way. The back-end is where the problems lie, with three conference roadies in six weeks, a visit by Utah, a trip to Notre Dame, and crosstown UCLA to end the season. We know how Riley is subject to diminishing expectations, and now everyone has the playbook on how to beat him: Manball their ass. For good measure, both lines are terrible and lost key talent. This is a 9-3 team willed to the Holiday bowl by outstanding QB play alone.
• Auburn over 6.5 — The OOC is up there with Georgia’s in terms of being an absolute joke. Hugh will get four wins out of the gate. UGA and ‘Bama are both at home too. Is it too much to ask that he goes 3-5 against the rest? Nope. That’s actually probably what he will do to. 7-5, maybe 8-4 with some breaks.
• Clemson over 9.5 — The defense didn’t go anywhere, the offense got better by subtraction, and the new look passing game is going to stun some folks. Truly. 11-1ish.
• Mizzou over 6.5 — By the skin of their teeth. Good thing for the Tigers, the road schedule is relatively forgiving. 7-5.
• Florida over 5.5 — Brutal conference slate with a trip to Utah to open the season and suck some mile-high air. They’ll be improved, even without AR15, but by how much? 6-6 would be a solid year, given their roster and the task at hand.
• Notre Dame over 9 — Schedule is very soft overall, despite looking decent on paper. Getting rid of Tommy Rees can only help the offense too. The defense is a year saltier, as are both sets of lines. 10-2. Maybe a 9-3 push. They’ll get slaughtered by Clemson though.
• Vandy over 3.5 — The ‘Dores can get to 4-0 with the OOC alone, though 1-3 is most likely. This team can surprise you, and they have two winnable ones at home without much of an upset. Bowl eligibilty for Clark Lea in Year Three: 6-6
• Aggie over 7.5 — Not the A&M is very good, but they are talented, Petrino will revamp that offense, and they have a forgiving home schedule that should get them to no worse than 7-1. They’ll get one on the road, too. But it may only be one: LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Arkansas. Call it 8-4, 9-3 the Platonic Texas A&M Season.