Giving Away Money 2022: Orange Bowl — Praying for a well-timed meteor strike

With the season almost over, I’m winding down the year with something a bit different. Every day, though season’s end, I’m going to give you the best analytical play for that day’s bowl games.

And for December 30th our winner is...

Orange Bowl, Unca’ Clem -6 vs Tennessee

Bad news, Vols: Hooker is gone for the year. So is Jalin Hyatt. And Cedric Tillman. Top three weapons right off the board...and three more wide receivers, just for that kick in the dick.

More bad news, Vols: Cade Klubnik is an actually good quarterback, and you still have a shitty secondary.

More bad news, Vols: Bobby Hill is terrible on the road, both S/U and ATS

Yet more bad news, Vols: He’s also a bad bowl coach.

Cherry on top? Five of CU’s starting front seven are all playing — and though two NFL talents are opting-out, Unca’ Clem has more than enough on the bench to get it done here. Few teams croot the down linemen as well as Clemson.

UT will have some success scheming against an iffy Clemson secondary. But if the Tigers secondary is iffy (and it is), then what do you call one of the worst in the country? Shambolic? Trasheriffic? Ghastly? Vomitous? Execrable? And, though there’s no Shipley in play, CU goes five deep back there, and recruiting has never been an issue.

It’s a thin but talented Clemson team that simply brings too much punch into this game — at least more than UT will have. It’s likely the only team in the country that got better losing a 24-game starter at QB. Dabo can absorb a few more losses far better than the Vawls — as can the more veteran coaching staff accustomed to big games.

How much do all those losses mean for UT? On a neutral field, they’d be favored by about 12. Without them, that swings by almost three full TDs the other direction. Don’t worry, Vawls, you always have that win over the worst Alabama team in 8 years to show for your “magical season.”

Pray for a meteor, and prepare for the post-game buffoonish sermon from Reverend Clownface McMegachurch.

#NeverDabo (except to cover -6...and he will)

Clemson -8.96

Want some more of these? I crank the data every week, for every single game over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.