Alabama 2023 NCAA Tournament Odds: Why the Crimson Tide is a good bargain to cut down the nets

Alabama clinched a program first on Sunday afternoon. In winning its second SEC Tournament title and Regular Season crown in three years, the 28-5 Crimson Tide (NET 2), were duly rewarded for three straight Q1 double-digit wins in three days.

Alabama Basketball has a 1-seed in the tourney, and is your overall No. 1 overall seed for the Big Dance. We’ve hit on this at length down the stretch in Points in the Paint, but this was a year you really did not want to draw the No. 2-4 overall seeds. Even if still a 1-line, at least two, and perhaps three regions were projected to be meatgrinders.

That in fact, came to pass. Alabama’s South Region is about as forgiving as you can have in a year were 7-8 teams had a claim to 1-seed, and the 2-seeds are every bit as good as the 1s.

Look at this: absolutely ridiculous.

But, did that change Alabama’s odds to win it all?

Nope. Not appreciably. Despite having a far tougher region than the Tide, and potentially drawing Auburn in Birmingham in the second Round, the Houston Cougars are still the favorite per DraftKings Sportsbook, at +$500.

The Crimson Tide has improved its odds somewhat, moving from the third best odds (+850), to second overall, at +$700. And, we would counsel you that taking the Tide here is not just a homer pick but probably is the smartest play, if you’re spitballing the future.

Here’s why:

• Look at the 2-seeds: UCLA, Marquette, Texas, Arizona — with the Wildcats being far and away the weakest of those four in the NET and advanced stats. The Wildcats are in ‘Bama’s region.
• Look at the 3-seeds: Baylor, Gonzaga, K State, Xavier — again, Alabama drew the most mortal 3-line, in Baylor.
• Even the tough 4/5s out there, the Tide got fortunate: No Vols, no Duke, no Miami, no Indiana. The Crimson Tide drew one of the weakest UVA team in the last decade.
• Scary midlines? No Arkansas or Auburn, both of whom have given ‘Bama fits this year. No red hot underrated Big 12 teams lurking.
• Looking for a 5-12 upset to then give a 1 trouble? Oral Roberts and VCU are waaaay on the other end of the country.
• Look to history: Last 5 years, and 12 of the last 15, the team cutting down the nets has been a 1-seed.

Yes, Alabama did draw Baylor as a 3-seed, and the 8/9 winner is going to be a battle: Maryland/West Virginia. But, in the main, this is as great of a draw as you could possibly expect, in a tournament where you need to win 5 games in a row, with the last four being Q1 affairs.

The Crimson Tide can do it. And with favorable, longer odds of 7/1, that’s a good investment for a great team.

Roll Tide

EDIT 3/12/2023 10:37 PM DST: After this was published, ‘Bama moved to +$500, with Houston still first at +$350. Still good odds, at 5:1, but perhaps not quite as lucrative as before.

Our thanks as always to DraftKings for sponsoring the site. You can check out up to the minute spreads for ‘Bama games — and the other 66 games in this year’s tourney, over at their hub.